JSA claimants rise above 10,000 again

Hackney JSA claimant numbers rose above 10,000 again for the first time since June.

The rate - percentage of the working populations aged between 16-64 and 16-24 (youth unemployment) - both rose in October.

Thousands of East Londoners in employment experiment

Research done in 2005 found that young people and men on the dole slow down their job searches if they are not watched closely - the findings have inspired a new experiment on East London's unemployed. 

This requires thousands of JSA claimants to sign-on once a week rather than once every two weeks and will therefore increase the workload of a diminished Jobcentre workforce. 

The original research did the opposite and greatly lowered the number of visits that unemployed people claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) had to make to Jobcentres. 

Hoxton is worst ward for longterm youth unemployment

Of all the wards in Hackney, Hoxton has the highest number and proportion of 18-24-year-olds who have been claiming Job Seekers Allowance for more than a year.

Government pilot increases workload at Hackney Jobcentres

Hackney Jobcentre Plus is taking part in a pilot scheme which requires some Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants to sign-on every week rather than every two weeks.

I am one of the 10,600 unemployed people in Hackney claiming Job Seekers Allowance and I was put on the pilot a couple of weeks ago.

What is the unemployment level in your ward?

Hackney Jobcentre cuts staff as unemployment peaks

Blood and Property has been told that a number of members of staff at the Mare Street Jobcentre Plus in Hackney Central have not have their contracts renewed. That's as the number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants using Hackney job centres hits record highs.

Back in 2009 Derek Harvey, external relations manager for Job Centre Plus and a member of Team Hackney told Blood and Property that JCP was “gearing up to handle greater volumes” of JSA claimants.

In those days the combined number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Hackney North and South was 9,350 (May 2009) falling to 9,308 (June 2009).

The forecast was correct - the count in September 2011 was 11,208 - a rise of more than 20% since the new recruits were taken on.

But now the volumes are here, it looks like JCP is gearing down.

A DWP spokesperson told Blood and Property: "Jobcentre Plus recruited a large number of people on temporary contracts to deal with the recession. As the Government looks to grow the economy and reduce the deficit JCP is now reducing its overall staffing, this year through a combination of normal turnover and releasing some of the people who were recruited on Fixed Term Appointments (FTAs) as their contracts come to an end. Its priority is to ensure support for people in Hackney is maintained."


This post is going up before the ONS releases the latest unemployment figures for the UK which will show whether or not the number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance has risen again Hackney.

If it has then Hackney will be maintaining its highest level of JSA claimants since the Financial Crisis

Unemployment claims level - high number of women

The total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance in Hackney fell for the first time since December but remained above 11,000 at 11,028.

Last month the figure was 11,043 and the proportion of the working population on the dole remains 7.3%.

As the chart shows most of the increases in claims over the last year have come from Hackney South where the level of unemployment is the highest in London and most of the UK - and where the proportion of unemployment among women is also higher than most at 6.6% of the population.

When the figures were released last week the Guardian said: 'Female's claiming Job Seeker's Allowance has risen month after month and is now at the highest level since August 1999. Looking at our detailed but not seasonally adjusted claimant count by constituency it shows that Birmingham Ladywood records the highest rate of female claimants at 6.8%. Hackney South and Shoreditch and Tottenham also have rates of over 6%.'

Hackney jobseekers: 11,000 and "entrenched"?

The number of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants in Hackney rose to 11,043 in May, up from 10,941 in April.

That's 7.3% of the borough's working population.

In Hackney South and Shoreditch, Meg Hillier's constituency, 8.3% of the working population is on the dole. It has risen every month since December 2010 when it was 7.3%.

These look worryingly high in comparison to the London average of 4.2%. Last week the Guardian commented: "Some of those parliamentary constituency areas, like Birmingham Ladywood, and Hackney South and Shoreditch, in east London, already have some of the highest proportions of benefit claimants, suggesting joblessness there is becoming entrenched."

The JSA claimant figure does not include all forms of unemployment - the bulk of which is known as 'Worklessness' and can include anyone from students to people claiming incapacity benefit.

All together 29.8% of working-age people in the borough are not employed (or 70.2% are employed). The break down between Hackney's two constituencies shows 32% of working age people are not employed in South Hackney while in Hackney North the figure is lower at 26.8%.

But it's worth remembering that worklessness figures are not easy to interpret. Despite having had years to look at it - and saying it would do so - the council has yet to explain why the borough's worklessness figures fell so miraculously (Don't look a gift horse in the mouth and Hackney: A worklessness miracle) from 47,100 in 2005 to 26,900 in 2007 - a much faster rate than neighbouring boroughs. The latest figures show the number around 34,000.

Hackney is the only borough where men are losing jobs

The latest Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) statistics for Hackney show 171 new claimants in March bringing the number of JSA claimants in Hackney to 10,653.

That's 7.1% of the working population. Hackney is the London borough with the highest percentage of jobseekers allowance claimants, it is also the only London borough where more men are losing jobs than finding them.

118 men have been added to the JSA claimant count in Hackney over the last 12 months. All other boroughs have seen the amount of male claimants fall. The nearest to Hackney is the City of London which has seen the number of male claimants fall by 21.

However Hackney is much like other boroughs in that most of the people losing jobs and claiming JSA have been women.

Background

The borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is 58% in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations with just 8.5% employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough. The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

HACKNEY BOROUGH

JSA CLAIMANT FIGURES:

2011

March 10,653 (7.1%) - (10,653/0.071=150,042) (+171)

February: 10,482 (6.9%) - (10,482/0.069=151,913) (+250)

- January: 10,232 (6.8%) - (10,232/0.068= 150,470) (+329)

2010

December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

HACKNEY NORTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

March - 5,006 (6.5%) - (5006/0.065=77,015) (+77)

Feb - 4,929 (6.4%) - (4,929/0.064=77,015) (+ 71)

Jan - 4, 858 (6.3%) - (4,858/0.063= 77,111) (+158)

2010

Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

HACKNEY SOUTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

March - 5,629 (8%) - (5629/0.08= 70,362) (+92)

February - 5,537 (7.8%) - (5,537/0.078=70,987) (+178)

January - 5,359 (7.6%) - (5,359/0.076= 70,513) (+172)

2010

Dec - 5,187 (7.3%) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,29

Hackney Purim, unemployment up again

GOOD PARTY: Apparently this week's market on Chatsworth Road was a happy success but the big Hackney party was going on up in Stamford Hill. A lot of drinking, dancing and fancy dress for the Purim festival.

BAD PARTY: The latest Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) statistics for Hackney show 250 new claimants signing on in February (figures released on 17 March). The number of JSA claimants in Hackney is now 10,482.

The last time the number of JSA claimants broke 10,000 was in February 2010.

The latest figures show job losses in Hackney South had accelerated (172 in Jan, 178 in Feb) but slowed in Hackney North (down from 158 to 71).

Meanwhile the question remains how vulnerable will Hackney be to cuts? This week's Hackney Gazette reports Brian Debus from Hackney TUC saying 400 Hackney Council employees would lose their jobs this year and that 200 have already taken voluntary redundancy.

The borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is 58% in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations with just 8.5% employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough. The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

HACKNEY BOROUGH

JSA CLAIMANT FIGURES:

2011

February: 10,482 (6.9%) - (10,482/0.069=151,913) (+250)

- January: 10,232 (6.8%) - (10,232/0.068= 150,470) (+329)

2010

December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

HACKNEY NORTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

Feb - 4,929 (6.4%) - (4,929/0.064=77,015) (+ 71)

Jan - 4, 858 (6.3%) - (4,858/0.063= 77,111) (+158)

2010

Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

HACKNEY SOUTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

February - 5,537 (7.8%) - (5,537/0.078=70,987) (+178)

January - 5,359 (7.6%) - (5,359/0.076= 70,513) (+172)

2010

Dec - 5,187 (7.3%) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Big spike in Hackney unemployment (JSA claimants)

The latest job seekers allowance statistics for Hackney show 329 new claimants signing on. The number of unemployed people (Job Seekers Allowance claimants - rather than 'workless' who are on longer term benefits) hit 10,232, the highest it has been since the financial crisis in 2008.

The last time the number of people claiming job seekers allowance broke 10,000 was in February 2010 and the last time the level of unemployment in Hackney rose at such a fast rate was between February and June 2009. Back then Hackney was hit with succession of monthly increases in unemployment.

Meanwhile the question remains how vulnerable will Hackney be to cuts?

Predictions that thousands of public sector jobs are likely to be lost - as many as a thousand in Hackney itself over the next four years - could drive increases if these people are Hackney residents.

However the demographics of the borough may protect it a little. The borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is weighted toward managerial and professional jobs with 58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations.

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough. The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

Will the number go up or down from here? Last months figures published by the Office of National Statistics showed that 92 fewer people were collecting the dole in Hackney in December 2010 with 9,903 claimants compared to 9,995 in November. That has more than reversed.

(While the actual number of unemployed people in Hackney has risen to a new high, this number, as a proportion of the working population, is not a record. It is 6.8% compared to 7% in September 2009 when there were 350 fewer JSA claimants. This, apparently, is due to boundary changes in Hackney North and South (the parliamentary constituencies) which took place in 2010. However, as far as I can remember, there were no changes to the boundaries of Hackney borough as a whole. So I'm not sure where this leap in the size of the population came from (There may be some explanation of for this here: statistical anomalies in Hackney. This month the combined total of new unemployed people in Hackney South and North is 330. Across the borough as a whole it is 329. The total number of JSA claimants in Hackney North and South is 10,217 while the figure for the borough as a whole is 10,232 - not exactly huge discrepancies but they could make it difficult to interpret what is going on.)

HACKNEY BOROUGH

JSA CLAIMANT FIGURES:

2011

January: 10,232 (6.8%) - (10,232/0.068= 150,470) (+329)

2010

December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

HACKNEY NORTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

Jan - 4, 858 (6.3%) - (4,858/0.063= 77,111) (+158)

2010

Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

HACKNEY SOUTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

January - 5,359 (7.6%) - (5,359/0.076= 70,513) (+172)

2010

Dec - 5,187 (7.3%) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Unemployment falls for first time in six months

The number of people claiming job seekers allowance in Hackney as a whole has fallen for the first time in six months. But can it continue as austerity measures bite?

The last time the borough saw falls in JSA claimant numbers the trend continued for four months and fell from a 10,044 peak in February 2010 to 9,406 in June 2010. A fall of 638 claimants.

Predictions that thousands of public sector jobs are likely to be lost - as many as a thousand in Hackney itself over the next four years - could prevent further falls. However the demographics of the borough may protect it from these cuts.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough.

However the borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is weighted toward managerial and professional jobs:

In 2008:

58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations.

23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations.

18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.

The paper said: "Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations."

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

The latest figures published by the Office of National Statistics show that 92 fewer people were collecting the dole in Hackney in December 2010 with 9,903 claimants compared to 9,995 in November.

However all the falls were in North Hackney which already has a lower level of unemployment than South Hackney (6.1% compared to 7.3%). The number of claimants in Hackney South increased again for the sixth month in a row, but by just four.

Meanwhile changes in the borough boundaries earlier this year are still throwing up mild discrepancies due to statistical anomalies. This time, if you take ONS data for the individual constituencies - Hackney North and Hackney South - you see a fall in JSA claimants of 90 compared to the official borough-wide fall of 92.

2010

December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

Dec - 5,187 (7.3) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Hackney public sector employees: 16,000 or 60,000 or 130,000?

The number of people claiming job seeker's allowance rose by 60 in October, not a huge increase, but this is the fourth consecutive monthly rise. It brings the number job seekers in the borough to 9,987 or 6.6% of the working population.

The big question now is how many people will lose their jobs as a result of the massive cuts being made to public sector budgets? There seem to be a range of views:

On November 5 2010 Hackney's representative on the London Assembly, Jennette Arnold, wrote: "In Hackney we have one of the highest rates of to public sector employees living in the borough in London. Over 40% of working people in North Hackney and Stoke Newington are employed the public sector." If Hackney North working population 77,435ish and 40% of that is 31,000 people with Hackney South yet to be added.

If you take the latest Hackney Council economic update (out this month after a long wait) you will discover: "Official statistics show 144,400 people of working age in Hackney, 68% of the total resident population." Using this figure and Arnold's 40%, the estimate is around 58,000.

Arnold's vision is mild mannered compared to Diane Abbott who thinks that Hackney will be like a pit village after the mine has closed. Writing in the Mirror Abbott said: "I live in an area where 90% of people work in the public sector." If she meant Hackney in general that would be 130,000 people. If she meant Hackney North (working population 77,435ish) that would be 70,000 people.

However Hackney Citizen and The Commune both have the number of people in Hackney who work in the public sector at 23,000. The latest Guardian Datablog on public sector employment says that 16,400 people in Hackney are employed in the public sector and that this is 20.02% of the borough's working population, less than the the national average (20.4%). This would suggest that Hackney should not be worse affected than anywhere else.

Sadly the latest Hackney economics paper doesn't specifically address how many people work in the public sector.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.

Has the population of Hackney increased by 10,000 since March? Statistical anomalies like June/July when the number of people on the dole increased but the percentage of the working population decreased.

2010

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Useful links

Guardian Datablog:

Guardian Datablog on public sector employee stats:

Dept

Unemployment rises by 136 claimants ahead of cuts

Hackney has seen 136 new people claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA) since last month when the claimant count rose by 325.

Hackney may be moving toward the February peak of 7% claiming dole - more than 10,000 of Hackney's working age population.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.

2010
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.065=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%)- (5,140/0.073=70,410)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Sharpest rise in Hackney jobseekers since May 2009

Hackney has seen the sharpest rise in the number of new people claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA) since June 2009.

Between July and August 2010 the number of people claiming JSA rose by 325 (see figures below)

Last week Jennette Arnold, Hackney's representative on the London Assembly, wrote in the Hackney Gazette that 40% of Hackney North's work force was employed in the public sector. She suggested that many of these jobs were at risk from government plans to cut 500,000 to 600,000 public sector jobs.

Back in May Diane Abbott said that cuts in public sector work force will have the same effect as a mine closure in a pit village.

Before the election, in November 2009, Diane was down-playing employment problems claiming that "this year Hackney North and Stoke Newington has seen one of the lowest rises in unemployment in the entire country. That is thanks to a number of projects targeted at getting people back into work including job fairs, pre-employment training and recruitment drives for big companies like Marks and Spencer and Sainsbury’s."

As the figures show below, when Diane made the comments Hackney as a whole had just experienced several significant rises in unemployment, mainly in the Meg Hillier's constituency. Blood and Property has asked Diane where she got her figures but has yet to reply.

The recent rise in JSA claimants is the first since the claimant count peaked in Hackney in February 2010 when 7%, more than 10,000 of Hackney's working age population, were on the dole.

This month's figures appear to be in-line with national figures as the nationwide jobseeker claimant levels rose for the first time since January, up by 2,300 nationwide. But Hackney's situation could shift faster than other areas if the economic climate worsens.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.

2010

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Irrational numbers: Hackney unemployment

The combined number of people on the dole in Hackney North and Hackney South has not equalled the total number of people on the dole in Hackney the local authority - that's been the case for the last four months(Hackney's 1600 'ghost' workers and 28 'ghost' claimants)

The discrepancy between the combined parliamentary constituencies and the borough - or local authority - appeared after changes were made to boundaries of Hackney North and Hackney South.

The difference between the two was never large and was decreasing from the original 28 in April ( 20 in May and 17 in June). But in July the discrepancy widened again to 23.

This month also sees another odd feature in the official statistics. The number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Hackney North and Hackney South rose in both constituencies - consequently it also rose in the borough as a whole.

But in all these cases, the official figures show that the proportion of the working population claiming JSA has fallen. So while the actual number of dole claimants has risen, their proportion in relation to the working population of Hackney has fallen.

The explanation is simply that the working population of Hackney has grown by between 3,000-5,000 in July alone. The whys and wherefores for these odd figures might be buried somewhere in here: Hackney statistics - don't try this at home.

As an aside there was an article in the News of the World today which had Hackney as one of the UK's worst 'jobless ghettos' but it must be hidden somewhere behind the News International pay wall. I didn't look closely enough to see what it was talking about.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority)
2010: working population extrapolated from figures in red.
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)
2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%)
July: 9550 (6.7%)




Hackney North

2010

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Hackney bin men exploited - 5.30am start but no job guarantee

The quotes below come from a story in a pamphlet called "No Cuts" - news from the Hackney Alliance to Defend Public Services. It sounded like something out of the Grapes of Wrath.

"Agency and council managers organise the 'morning day labour market' at the depot. This means that temp workers are supposed to turn up at 5:30am and wait 'til about 7:30am. If all regular workers turn up or too many temps arrived, people are sent back home without a job and unpaid - after having been employed at the depot for more than a year."

The author, "a refuse worker", warns that this exploited labour force is too disorganised to defend itself: "At Hackney waste depot around 30-40% of us (bin men, sweepers, drivers) are temps, most of them on the minimum wage, most of them on day-jobs. In addition to this division there are all the "private companies" and "self employed" engaged in rubbish collection - no strike could be successful without including them."

The author warns against this trend toward the casualisation of the labour force: "Demands to force back the cut must include the struggle against this enforced casualisation."

The leaflet looks like it might have something to do with Hackney TUC - it says that there is a meeting on 11 August at 7.30pm at Trinity Centre, Beechwood Road, Dalston.

Diane denies intern allegations

On Saturday Blood and Property reported that a new hypocrisy claim had been made about Diane Abbott: that she may have as many as 10 unpaid interns and that this would conflict with her principles on employers paying for work done.

A response was sent by a member of her leadership bid team which denies the claim:

"At the moment, Diane has no unpaid interns. The allegation that she has 'nearly 10' is completely untrue. Her last intern was paid the minimum wage. You will notice that the accusation made of Diane in the blog postings are completely unsubstantiated.

"I would suggest that other people working in Portcullis House, where many MPs have offices, may have tallied the number of different non-pass-holders entering her office and assumed that they were all interns. Diane has a more diverse range of staff and guests than most MPs, so the people at her office are noticeable.

"Diane does have several people volunteering for her leadership campaign (some of whom come to see her at parliamentary office for reasons of convenience). Her leadership campaign must be funded and staffed independently of her parliamentary expenses and volunteers work out of her campaign office in Hampsted on a day-to-day basis.

"I hope this answers your question."

Thanks for the swift reply and yes, that answers the question.

Diane in new hypocrisy claim? Unpaid interns

Interns Anonymous has reported that Labour leadership contenders will sign a petition from InternAware to force employers to pay interns a minimum wage... but they don't except Diane Abbott to be one of them.

According to Interns Anonymous, Diane may have several unpaid interns working for her. The site claimed to have spoken to one who had worked, unpaid, for 18 months before getting a job.

Interns Anonymous said: "Real justice there Diane, you hypocrite."

I'm waiting to see if Diane has a response to these allegations - but I've only just emailed her to find out.

Diane has campaigned on employment issues.

In this statement to the Unions she said:

"Ensuring we have a living wage is extremely important. Working hard should mean being able to provide for your family and lead a decent standard of living – not living on the breadline.

"Implementing a living wage doesn't only benefit the employees. It improves staff loyalty and boosts morale, and therefore productivity. It also reduces training and recruitment costs, which is overall better value for money for employers.

"I would support introducing legislation to ensure that government tenders are not able to be taken up by contractors who are not prepared to pay a living wage to their staff.

"As a party, we must lead by example and those who are not willing to offer a decent wage for a decent day’s work, should not benefit from government contracts.

Here is an old advert for an unpaid internship in Diane's office: http://www.w4mp.org/html/personnel/jobs/disp_job.asp?ref=15020

It said: "Some of the work will be interesting, while some of it will be more mundane."
It also asked for: "Excellent IT and communication skills."

Despite being boring and requiring excellent skills, the advert said the internship: "is voluntary and will not be used to cover duties otherwise performed by a paid employee."

Interns Anonymous has a picture of Labour Candidate Andy Burnham holding up a signed pledge. This appears to come from a campaign called Intern Aware that is also endorsed by Labour Students and the media union Bectu.

The picture is on InternAware's blog which lists organisations and individuals who oppose unpaid internships including Barack Obama and the IPPR.

According to the site, the Low Pay Commission reported in March that “growing evidence of abuse” exists with a “growing number of people undertaking ‘work’ but excluded from the minimum wage. It said there are "tens of thousands of people with the talent to become leaders in these fields. However, their chances of success are limited because they can’t afford to work for free."

Last year Interns Anonymous reported on Tory MP Philip Hammond, now Secretary of State for Transport. Hammond replied that it would be a waste of taxpayers money to pay people to do work that could be done for free.

Other news:

The Daily Mail reports on Hackney Council's £400,000 taxi cab bill - I was sure I'd seen a very similar story to this somewhere else in the last couple of weeks, but can't remember where.

Redundancy mentioned just four times in 80 page Hackney cuts forecast

In its MTPF (MEDIUM TERM PLANNING FORECAST 2011/12 to 2013/14 (FORWARD PLAN NO. FR7 D50) PDF 496 KB) which was due to be discussed at last night's Cabinet meeting, the council said that Hackney was particularly vulnerable to government cuts (quotes below).


Despite this, in its "Workforce Strategy" redundancies are not mentioned once. In the whole 80 page document redundancy is mentioned in two sections, a total of four times. One is a restructuring in Safer neighbourhoods - saying there may be some - the the other is on page 79, saying the council has set aside £0.888m "To cover the potential costs of redundancies arising from reshaping of the Council’s service delivery."

This doesn't seem to match the visions of Hackney as the 21st Century pit village conjured up by Diane Abbott.

It also seems to differ from this article in the Camden New Journal which suggests that other Councils have been a bit more specific about redundancies - Camden has already put a 207 figure on it.

Neither does the redundancy-lite document seem to match up with these depressing quotes from Hackney's MTPF:

The council said: "It is impossible at this stage to predict the impact of future grant settlements on Hackney but we do know a uniform change in Central Government support will not have a uniform impact on all London Boroughs. Hackney’s position at the settlement floor, coupled with its relatively high reliance on Formula Grant and low taxbase means it is disproportionately more vulnerable to reductions in central government support than some other London Boroughs."

And

"It is also important to note that Hackney is an authority with a relatively low tax base compared to other London Boroughs and is in receipt of more Formula Grant per head of population than any other Borough. The significance of this is that Hackney is more susceptible to adverse changes to the Local Government Grant Distribution system. At this stage it is not yet clear whether there will be a further review of the funding formulae in time for the 2011/12 settlement but it should be noted that during the last two years, representatives of central and local government have been working on proposals to change the formulae that are used to calculate Formula Grant. Many of the proposals which have been formulated have not yet been modelled by CLG and so we don’t know exactly how they will affect the Council. However, some of the proposals which have been formulated could significantly disadvantage the Council"

I wasn't at the cabinet meeting and I haven't had time to make sure I have understood the Medium Term Planning forecast. The main issue is that Hackney seems to acknowledge that it is in for a rough ride, it's estimates for cuts range between 20%-30% scenarios,

On the UK as a whole it says:

"The UK economy emerged from recession in the last quarter of 2009 and grew at a rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2010. The general consensus among economists is that the UK economy will continue to grow over the medium term but at a lower rate than that predicted earlier in the year. However, there is a significant body of opinion that agrees there is a risk that the UK economy may suffer a “double-dip” recession i.e. fall back into recession during 2010, primarily as a result of the planned expenditure reductions and tax rises outlined in the June 2010 emergency budget (see paragraph 13).

One of the many issues it asks Cabinet members to note is: "that this report updates Cabinet on the recent announcements contained within the Emergency Budget on 22 June 2010 and sets out a range of scenarios on how this might impact upon the Council and its financial position. Members are asked to note the significant changes to the financial planning horizon arising from the impact of the credit crunch and the announcements in the Governments Emergency Budget. In particular the announcement that Government Departments will be expected to make savings of around an average of 25% over the next four years."

WORKFORCE STRATEGY (as stated in the MTPF):

19.2 In 2007 the Assistant Director (HR and Organisation Development) developed a workforce strategy to ensure that the Council had in place the skills, capacity and HR organisational procedures to enable it to deliver the objectives set out in the Corporate Plan and to ensure that we had in place a workforce that met the Council’s future needs. The strategy was reviewed earlier this year following a refresh of the Community Strategy and retitled the 'People and Organisation and Employee Development Strategy' in recognition of its dual role in supporting both the organisation and its staffin meeting agreed priorities and responsibilities. The strategy is split into 6 key themes:
• Recruitment and Retention • Supporting organisational change • Leadership and management • Developing excellent customer Services • Promoting Equality and celebrating Diversity and • Planning for the future
A range of key areas have been taken forward this year including an end to end review of recruitment which has resulted in the introduction of a centralised recruitment function, to be supported by the implementation of an e-recruitment system, a review of image and reputation and the roll out of the new agency contract; all as part of the ongoing commitment to consolidate the permanent workforce and reduce reliance on temporary staff. The programme of work which is being overseen by the Best Use of Resources Board also saw the introduction of a Council wide Apprenticeship scheme with the planned recruitment of up to 100 apprentices, and the introduction of workforce planning into the revised service planning process. Other people management initiatives included the introduction of a new Management Development programme for 2nd to 4th tier, achievement of level 3 of the Equality Standard and the commissioning of a new cultural change programme to support the extensive OD requirements arising out of Service First.