The number of people claiming job seeker's allowance rose by 60 in October, not a huge increase, but this is the fourth consecutive monthly rise. It brings the number job seekers in the borough to 9,987 or 6.6% of the working population.
The big question now is how many people will lose their jobs as a result of the massive cuts being made to public sector budgets? There seem to be a range of views:
On November 5 2010 Hackney's representative on the London Assembly, Jennette Arnold, wrote: "In Hackney we have one of the highest rates of to public sector employees living in the borough in London. Over 40% of working people in North Hackney and Stoke Newington are employed the public sector." If Hackney North working population 77,435ish and 40% of that is 31,000 people with Hackney South yet to be added.
If you take the latest Hackney Council economic update (out this month after a long wait) you will discover: "Official statistics show 144,400 people of working age in Hackney, 68% of the total resident population." Using this figure and Arnold's 40%, the estimate is around 58,000.
Arnold's vision is mild mannered compared to Diane Abbott who thinks that Hackney will be like a pit village after the mine has closed. Writing in the Mirror Abbott said: "I live in an area where 90% of people work in the public sector." If she meant Hackney in general that would be 130,000 people. If she meant Hackney North (working population 77,435ish) that would be 70,000 people.
However Hackney Citizen and The Commune both have the number of people in Hackney who work in the public sector at 23,000. The latest Guardian Datablog on public sector employment says that 16,400 people in Hackney are employed in the public sector and that this is 20.02% of the borough's working population, less than the the national average (20.4%). This would suggest that Hackney should not be worse affected than anywhere else.
Sadly the latest Hackney economics paper doesn't specifically address how many people work in the public sector.
Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:
Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.
Has the population of Hackney increased by 10,000 since March? Statistical anomalies like June/July when the number of people on the dole increased but the percentage of the working population decreased.
2010
October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)
August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)
2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)
June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)
April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)
March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)
February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)
January: 7,350 (5.2%)
2008
December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)
October - 6,982 (4.9%)
September - 6,942 (4.9%)
August - 6,803 (4.8%)
July - 6,454 (4.6%)
June - 6,440 (4.6%)
Hackney North2010
Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967)
August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)
July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)
June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)
May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)
April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)
March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)
February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)
2009
December - 4331 (6.2%)
November - 4386 (6.3%)
October - 4365
September - 4,338
August - 4,331
July - 4206
June - 4,118
May - 4,081
Hackney South
2010
Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)
August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)
July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)
May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)
April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)
March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)
January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)
2009
December - 5,412 (7.5%)
November - 5,409 (7.5%)
October - 5,462
September - 5,546 (7.8%)
August - 5,495
July - 5,344
June - 5,190
May - 5,296Useful links
Guardian Datablog:
Guardian Datablog on public sector employee stats:
Dept
Posts
Aren't you making the false assumption that you have to work in Hackney if you live in Hackney?
ReplyDeleteI used to work for the local authority of a different area to the one I lived in.
Good work digging out all those numbers!
ReplyDeletetaras: Interesting point... so you think Hackney could have become a public sector employee 'ghetto'? What would cause that - low pay in that sector causing people to seek out cheaper accommodation?
Hi Tara, you're right - but I hope I didn't make that assumption. I was thinking that the public sector cuts will affect all local authorities - at least the ones in East London. The interesting divide might be between the supposedly 'ring-fenced' budgets of NHS versus other sectors.
ReplyDeleteThe council's latest economic document says that only 13% of Hackney's residents actually work in the borough compared to the London average of 19%. So when Hackney council cuts it may not have an overwhelming effect on the borough's employment figures.
The breakdown from the Hackney Economics paper is quite surprising. It suggests that Hackney's unemployment rate will be worst hit by management cuts.
It's quite near the end of the document but there don't seem to page numbers:
"In 2008, 58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional and associate professional and technical occupations. Another 23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations, and the final 18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.
..... "Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations. These split between the two, associate professional and technical occupations including science, and engineering technicians and IT service delivery; health, public service and social work associate professionals, culture media and sport occupations, and business, legal and finance professionals; and professionals such as engineers, software professionals, solicitors, accountants and architects. The third largest category (17%) are employed in various management occupations.
At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales. The final category with a significant amount of employees is the administrative and secretarial occupations.