Calm before the storm? Eight new jobseekers in November

According to the Office of National Statistics there are now 9,995 people in Hackney claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA). The figures are for November and show an increase of eight new jobseekers allowance (JSA) claimants on the October total of 9,987.

This represents about 6.6% of the borough's working population of about 150,000 and although small it is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the number of JSA claimants.

NORTH SOUTH DIVIDE

While Hackney as a whole saw the number of people on the dole increase, Hackney North saw the number of its residents claiming JSA fall by five. But Hackney South saw the number of claimants increase by 19.

As such Hackney's JSA claimant count should have increased by 14 in November but due to statistical anomalies, the total JSA count has increased by just eight.

The big question is how much will Hackney's employment rate suffer from the government cuts. There seem to be a number of different views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect of the cuts on the borough.

The borough's working population appears to be highly weighted toward managerial and professional jobs according to the borough's latest economic factsheet:

"In 2008, 58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional and associate professional and technical occupations. Another 23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations, and the final 18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.

"Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations. These split between the two, associate professional and technical occupations including science, and engineering technicians and IT service delivery; health, public service and social work associate professionals, culture media and sport occupations, and business, legal and finance professionals; and professionals such as engineers, software professionals, solicitors, accountants and architects. The third largest category (17%) are employed in various management occupations.

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales. The final category with a significant amount of employees is the administrative and secretarial occupations.

The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough. Also, the fact that these jobs are managerial does not mean that they are not in the public sector.

2010

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) ()
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

'An insult to the people of Hackney' or an injury?

The Local Government Chronicle's chief reporter has provided more terrifying insights into the government's attitude to Hackney as Mayor Pipe does his best to get some straight answers about cuts. (More background here)

It is disturbing stuff. Pipe told the LGC reporter that the government's response to his questions about the cuts were an 'insult to the people of Hackney'. Sadly the end result is more likely to be an injury: evidence that the government will let places like Hackney become dysfunctional casualties of the cuts.

A story about the potential demise of Operation Trident - in the Guardian and the BBC - demonstrates that some of these assaults on life in Hackney may not be directly aimed at the borough. The Hackney Gazette had a source claiming that these reports were 'taken out of context' which is hardly a convincing denial.

And the official 'denial' is nothing of the sort - it had a Hackney Police spokeswoman saying the police were committed to building on the success of Trident, not necessarily with Trident.

Trident could even stay as it is and Hackney still lose out. A slight shift in political priorities at the top could see the task force's efforts concentrated on other boroughs - Hackney and Lambeth have been the main recipients of Trident's efforts.

There is also the question of elected police chiefs and the effect that could have on places like Hackney - watch The Wire to see what goes on behind the scenes in a politicised police force.

Pipe Vs Pickles: but will Ken be more dangerous?

“I need no lectures from you on efficiency,” Jules Pipe told Eric Pickles, minister in charge of imposing cuts on councils like Hackney. The report came via the Local Government Chronicle chief reporter's blog - about the London Councils summit (pics) on November 6.

According to LGC blog there had: "been an exchange of letters between the two in the previous week and it seems Mr Pickles had come to the event in combative mood."

But our mayor seems to have done well: "With Mr Pipe remaining cool and collected - and remaining diplomatic - and Mr Pickles becoming increasingly angry and rattled." (Another account of it here)

It seems mayor Pipe is becoming an important figure in battle against the coalition cuts. On Thursday he said as much in his 'Talking Point' - on the letters page of the Hackney Gazette: "I have called on the government to think again and I'm lobbying them on behalf of Hackney and councils across London..."

But Pipe has a more subtle problem than Eric Pickles as he becomes a London-wide player. It seems London politicians are experiencing a cross-party unity against coalition government cuts (not on moral grounds. Apparently Conservative outer London boroughs are worried by the threat of an influx of Labour voting folk shifted from inner city boroughs by benefit cuts).

The problems will come if there's any sign that Johnson might win concessions for London's poor. Would Ken Livingstone allow Labour politicians like Pipe to help Johnson score a London victory as the London Mayoral elections approach?

Although the fates of poor people in London look like they are bound up with the Labour Party, Johnson's stance - probably prompted by Labour boroughs - throws a spanner in the works for Ken.

So could Ken Livingstone and Jules Pipe contemplate undermining Johnson if a political battle with Cameron gathers pace? Who knows? May be, in the very long run, it would be better for Hackney's poorest if Johnson doesn't succeed. But any assumption that the well-being of Hackney is solidly intertwined with the fate of the Labour Party should probably be suspended until after the next batch of elections.

Also, Hackney has two MPs and one Mayor whose attentions are diverted beyond Hackney's borders. They all see their jobs as fighting cuts for the nation as a whole, hopefully they won't use it as an excuse to avoid what De Beauvoir councillors predict predict will be "devastating decisions" about Hackney.

Hackney Gazette has new website that allows comments

Yes, the Hackney Gazette now allows people to leave comments. Blood and Property left one under the Hackney cuts story. Not sure why, but the comment, left on Saturday, had yet to appear on Sunday night.

Other story this week:

Turkish crime Turkish Politics

Pipe sets spin to positive for cuts

In this week's Hackney Gazette Meg Hillier says: "These cuts are so deep and quick that even with the strong local leadership by Hackney's mayor, we will see services devastated."

Diane Abbott has spoken about Hackney like a pit village facing mine closure.

Jules Pipe's councillors are no less negative. In July Councillor Louisa Thomson, also of We Love Stoke Newington, wrote an article for Progress Magazine called: "What are community organisers for": "In Hackney, we are bracing ourselves for the 25 per cent cuts rumoured for the autumn spending review. We have a reputation now for sound financial management and efficiency savings, but overall we're a group of Labour councillors that isn't used to having to have these discussions and it's going to hurt."

On September 30th the Hackney Gazette had Jules Pipe implying that there would be no cuts in young peoples services: "We have nearly halved the number of 16 to 18 year-olds not in education, employment or training. We are determined to maintain the provision of services that will continue to drive this figure down still further..." He then spoke about his hopes for the effects of the olympics on the borough... like he did in his previous talking point on 19 August. This spinning is unlikely to be without its purpose, even if it isn't clear at the moment.

What do Operation Trident cuts mean for Hackney?

Hackney is one of the biggest 'clients' of operation trident. The chances are that Trident officers know more about Hackney's worst criminals than Hackney's own detectives.

According to data provided to Blood and Property by Operation Trident under a Freedom of Information Act request, Hackney is its second biggest customer. In 2008-9 Trident had a £28m budget and employed 359 police officers. Over the last four years Hackney has seen 110 cases, 10% of Trident's case load, being investigated.

This debate on youth crime took place in Parliament in September 2010. No Hackney MPs were there (both probably busy with the Labour leadership)

But David Lammy (Tottenham) (Lab) asked: "Can the hon. Gentleman confirm whether a decision has been made by Boris—the Mayor of London—to cut the marketing budget of Operation Trident? It is important that we should be able to communicate with the young people of London in order to deflect them from crime, so can the Minister comment on whether that is, in fact, true?"

James Brokenshire: "I am afraid that I cannot give him a direct answer to the specific point that he raises about any decision that the Mayor may or may not have made on Operation Trident. However, I should be happy to make inquiries and, as required, write to him if that would be of assistance to him."

It looks like similar cuts to Operation Trident's PR machine were done before, in 2008: "The cuts in adspend will mean less high profile campaigns such as the Metropolitan Police's Operation Trident campaign, created by Miles Calcraft Briginshaw Duffy, to fight gun crime."

The issue of advertising and challenging the perceptions of the black community and the police were addressed by the Met's armed police CO19 back in May 2010 (on the day of the London Fields Shooting). This highlighted a number of persistent beliefs within the black community about subjects like police corruption.

Homerton crack baby theory and A&E threat

In a discussion thread from Mumsnet in Feb 2010 one of the commentators said "the bad reputation Homerton" is out of date and "it's been really improved in recent years."

She said: "Also my own doctor had her baby there and was very positive. The other thing about Homerton is that it has one of the best neo-natal units around because of all the crack babies etc... (Sorry I couldn't find a nice Guardian-y way of putting that without wanting to throw up. ) Plus they have posh consultants like Dr Katrina Erskine who is famous and that, and also works in posh-people private hospitals."

Blood and Property hasn't tried to find out if this claim is correct but judging by this Wikipedia entry and this New York Times story about an epidemic that never happened - it probably isn't.

Although "Cocaine slows fetal growth, and exposed infants tend to be born smaller than unexposed ones, with smaller heads. But as these children grow, brain and body size catch up" so may be the actual births are more dangerous.

But it's a possibility that cash spent on specialising services (In 2002 Homerton staff were shipped off to Soweto for 'battle surgery' training) to the particular needs of a community might not be relevant for very long.

A&E to close?

That's according to this Hackney Communist site: "Cuts of up to 187 million over next three years in Hackney NHS; Homerton Hospital might shut down the Accident and Emergency, Stroke and Maternity Departments, replaced by smaller GP units, polyclinics."

I asked around but no one seemed to know much about this. Doesn't mean it's wrong.

This site outlines possible major cuts in a secret report leaked to the BBC earlier this year

If you've got time, this is an interesting article:

Redundancy mentioned just four times in 80 page Hackney cuts forecast

In its MTPF (MEDIUM TERM PLANNING FORECAST 2011/12 to 2013/14 (FORWARD PLAN NO. FR7 D50) PDF 496 KB) which was due to be discussed at last night's Cabinet meeting, the council said that Hackney was particularly vulnerable to government cuts (quotes below).


Despite this, in its "Workforce Strategy" redundancies are not mentioned once. In the whole 80 page document redundancy is mentioned in two sections, a total of four times. One is a restructuring in Safer neighbourhoods - saying there may be some - the the other is on page 79, saying the council has set aside £0.888m "To cover the potential costs of redundancies arising from reshaping of the Council’s service delivery."

This doesn't seem to match the visions of Hackney as the 21st Century pit village conjured up by Diane Abbott.

It also seems to differ from this article in the Camden New Journal which suggests that other Councils have been a bit more specific about redundancies - Camden has already put a 207 figure on it.

Neither does the redundancy-lite document seem to match up with these depressing quotes from Hackney's MTPF:

The council said: "It is impossible at this stage to predict the impact of future grant settlements on Hackney but we do know a uniform change in Central Government support will not have a uniform impact on all London Boroughs. Hackney’s position at the settlement floor, coupled with its relatively high reliance on Formula Grant and low taxbase means it is disproportionately more vulnerable to reductions in central government support than some other London Boroughs."

And

"It is also important to note that Hackney is an authority with a relatively low tax base compared to other London Boroughs and is in receipt of more Formula Grant per head of population than any other Borough. The significance of this is that Hackney is more susceptible to adverse changes to the Local Government Grant Distribution system. At this stage it is not yet clear whether there will be a further review of the funding formulae in time for the 2011/12 settlement but it should be noted that during the last two years, representatives of central and local government have been working on proposals to change the formulae that are used to calculate Formula Grant. Many of the proposals which have been formulated have not yet been modelled by CLG and so we don’t know exactly how they will affect the Council. However, some of the proposals which have been formulated could significantly disadvantage the Council"

I wasn't at the cabinet meeting and I haven't had time to make sure I have understood the Medium Term Planning forecast. The main issue is that Hackney seems to acknowledge that it is in for a rough ride, it's estimates for cuts range between 20%-30% scenarios,

On the UK as a whole it says:

"The UK economy emerged from recession in the last quarter of 2009 and grew at a rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2010. The general consensus among economists is that the UK economy will continue to grow over the medium term but at a lower rate than that predicted earlier in the year. However, there is a significant body of opinion that agrees there is a risk that the UK economy may suffer a “double-dip” recession i.e. fall back into recession during 2010, primarily as a result of the planned expenditure reductions and tax rises outlined in the June 2010 emergency budget (see paragraph 13).

One of the many issues it asks Cabinet members to note is: "that this report updates Cabinet on the recent announcements contained within the Emergency Budget on 22 June 2010 and sets out a range of scenarios on how this might impact upon the Council and its financial position. Members are asked to note the significant changes to the financial planning horizon arising from the impact of the credit crunch and the announcements in the Governments Emergency Budget. In particular the announcement that Government Departments will be expected to make savings of around an average of 25% over the next four years."

WORKFORCE STRATEGY (as stated in the MTPF):

19.2 In 2007 the Assistant Director (HR and Organisation Development) developed a workforce strategy to ensure that the Council had in place the skills, capacity and HR organisational procedures to enable it to deliver the objectives set out in the Corporate Plan and to ensure that we had in place a workforce that met the Council’s future needs. The strategy was reviewed earlier this year following a refresh of the Community Strategy and retitled the 'People and Organisation and Employee Development Strategy' in recognition of its dual role in supporting both the organisation and its staffin meeting agreed priorities and responsibilities. The strategy is split into 6 key themes:
• Recruitment and Retention • Supporting organisational change • Leadership and management • Developing excellent customer Services • Promoting Equality and celebrating Diversity and • Planning for the future
A range of key areas have been taken forward this year including an end to end review of recruitment which has resulted in the introduction of a centralised recruitment function, to be supported by the implementation of an e-recruitment system, a review of image and reputation and the roll out of the new agency contract; all as part of the ongoing commitment to consolidate the permanent workforce and reduce reliance on temporary staff. The programme of work which is being overseen by the Best Use of Resources Board also saw the introduction of a Council wide Apprenticeship scheme with the planned recruitment of up to 100 apprentices, and the introduction of workforce planning into the revised service planning process. Other people management initiatives included the introduction of a new Management Development programme for 2nd to 4th tier, achievement of level 3 of the Equality Standard and the commissioning of a new cultural change programme to support the extensive OD requirements arising out of Service First.

Hackney Communists predict disorder on poll tax scale and beyond

A post on The Commune blog called "A Ripple in a Storm" reports from a 50-strong meeting held in Hackney at the end of June.

It said: "In Hackney, the meeting was called by the local trades council, having been asked to do so by the local government Unison branch."

Until recently Hackney Unison was not a happy ship dut to the acrimonious "witchunt" of four London reps - including Brian Debus - trade union activist, Hackney Unison Branch Chair whose plight had even won the support of the Daily Mail. (Blood and Property (Are Hackney unions ready for the last stand?))

And according to this post on Hangbitch (July 11), the answer is that Unison will still not take on Labour. The Hangbitch author was at the above-mentioned meeting: "I wonder if the grassroots is up for a fight for public services, though. I want it to be, but that’ll hardly make it happen. Who would lead such a fight? Public sector trade unions? Hah. The PCS may put up a geniune fight, but Unison won’t.

"I attend a meeting of Hackney locals and trade union members which is led by Brian Debus – a man who is walking testimony to Unison’s hatred of popular pro-public service, leftwing activists. Debus is one of the four Socialist party activists Unison has banned from office for demanding that Unison stop funding the pro-privatising Labour party. There is a great deal of difference between what Unison does and what it says. This meeting of about 50 people knows that. It agrees that unions are too weak and too slow to organise effectively against the coalition juggernaut." (Similar but not the same as a Liberal Conspiracy post mentioned before)

The Commune reports: "One speaker said that in order to resist the cuts, if we are realistic, we need organisation of the level last seen during anti poll tax movement, which organised in committees street by street, and workplace by workplace. In my view, we will need to organise demonstrations – and direct action besides – but the ferocity of the impending attacks does bear comparison with the poll tax: so our response must recognise that."

It also said: "In Hackney, cuts have already begun. Cuts to the local college are covered elsewhere in The Commune. There have also been cuts at the local waste depot, and a number of teaching assistants have been made redundant in primary schools. These are not Tory cuts, not yet. They are Labour’s last sigh in government, the first ripple in the coming storm."

So will Unison see industrial action as taking on a Tory government or a Labour council? Or as defending its members?

Other bits on other blogs:

Little London Fields festival..."In a bid to distance itself from current associations with shootings and stabbings and regain its throne as the place Hackney folk can gather

And a movie about various people in Dalston and other places