Calm before the storm? Eight new jobseekers in November

According to the Office of National Statistics there are now 9,995 people in Hackney claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA). The figures are for November and show an increase of eight new jobseekers allowance (JSA) claimants on the October total of 9,987.

This represents about 6.6% of the borough's working population of about 150,000 and although small it is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the number of JSA claimants.

NORTH SOUTH DIVIDE

While Hackney as a whole saw the number of people on the dole increase, Hackney North saw the number of its residents claiming JSA fall by five. But Hackney South saw the number of claimants increase by 19.

As such Hackney's JSA claimant count should have increased by 14 in November but due to statistical anomalies, the total JSA count has increased by just eight.

The big question is how much will Hackney's employment rate suffer from the government cuts. There seem to be a number of different views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect of the cuts on the borough.

The borough's working population appears to be highly weighted toward managerial and professional jobs according to the borough's latest economic factsheet:

"In 2008, 58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional and associate professional and technical occupations. Another 23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations, and the final 18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.

"Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations. These split between the two, associate professional and technical occupations including science, and engineering technicians and IT service delivery; health, public service and social work associate professionals, culture media and sport occupations, and business, legal and finance professionals; and professionals such as engineers, software professionals, solicitors, accountants and architects. The third largest category (17%) are employed in various management occupations.

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales. The final category with a significant amount of employees is the administrative and secretarial occupations.

The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough. Also, the fact that these jobs are managerial does not mean that they are not in the public sector.

2010

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) ()
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296