Hoxton is worst ward for longterm youth unemployment

Of all the wards in Hackney, Hoxton has the highest number and proportion of 18-24-year-olds who have been claiming Job Seekers Allowance for more than a year.

Today (Sunday): Hustings for Hackney's GLA members

A ‘question time’ for the candidates standing for the London North East seat on the Greater London Assembly will include these four candidates:

Caroline Allen: Green
Jennette Arnold:Labour
Naomi Newstead:Conservative
Farooq Qureshi:Lib Dem

The even has been organised by Hackney Unites which said:

Hackney public sector employees: 16,000 or 60,000 or 130,000?

The number of people claiming job seeker's allowance rose by 60 in October, not a huge increase, but this is the fourth consecutive monthly rise. It brings the number job seekers in the borough to 9,987 or 6.6% of the working population.

The big question now is how many people will lose their jobs as a result of the massive cuts being made to public sector budgets? There seem to be a range of views:

On November 5 2010 Hackney's representative on the London Assembly, Jennette Arnold, wrote: "In Hackney we have one of the highest rates of to public sector employees living in the borough in London. Over 40% of working people in North Hackney and Stoke Newington are employed the public sector." If Hackney North working population 77,435ish and 40% of that is 31,000 people with Hackney South yet to be added.

If you take the latest Hackney Council economic update (out this month after a long wait) you will discover: "Official statistics show 144,400 people of working age in Hackney, 68% of the total resident population." Using this figure and Arnold's 40%, the estimate is around 58,000.

Arnold's vision is mild mannered compared to Diane Abbott who thinks that Hackney will be like a pit village after the mine has closed. Writing in the Mirror Abbott said: "I live in an area where 90% of people work in the public sector." If she meant Hackney in general that would be 130,000 people. If she meant Hackney North (working population 77,435ish) that would be 70,000 people.

However Hackney Citizen and The Commune both have the number of people in Hackney who work in the public sector at 23,000. The latest Guardian Datablog on public sector employment says that 16,400 people in Hackney are employed in the public sector and that this is 20.02% of the borough's working population, less than the the national average (20.4%). This would suggest that Hackney should not be worse affected than anywhere else.

Sadly the latest Hackney economics paper doesn't specifically address how many people work in the public sector.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.

Has the population of Hackney increased by 10,000 since March? Statistical anomalies like June/July when the number of people on the dole increased but the percentage of the working population decreased.

2010

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296

Useful links

Guardian Datablog:

Guardian Datablog on public sector employee stats:

Dept

Sharpest rise in Hackney jobseekers since May 2009

Hackney has seen the sharpest rise in the number of new people claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA) since June 2009.

Between July and August 2010 the number of people claiming JSA rose by 325 (see figures below)

Last week Jennette Arnold, Hackney's representative on the London Assembly, wrote in the Hackney Gazette that 40% of Hackney North's work force was employed in the public sector. She suggested that many of these jobs were at risk from government plans to cut 500,000 to 600,000 public sector jobs.

Back in May Diane Abbott said that cuts in public sector work force will have the same effect as a mine closure in a pit village.

Before the election, in November 2009, Diane was down-playing employment problems claiming that "this year Hackney North and Stoke Newington has seen one of the lowest rises in unemployment in the entire country. That is thanks to a number of projects targeted at getting people back into work including job fairs, pre-employment training and recruitment drives for big companies like Marks and Spencer and Sainsbury’s."

As the figures show below, when Diane made the comments Hackney as a whole had just experienced several significant rises in unemployment, mainly in the Meg Hillier's constituency. Blood and Property has asked Diane where she got her figures but has yet to reply.

The recent rise in JSA claimants is the first since the claimant count peaked in Hackney in February 2010 when 7%, more than 10,000 of Hackney's working age population, were on the dole.

This month's figures appear to be in-line with national figures as the nationwide jobseeker claimant levels rose for the first time since January, up by 2,300 nationwide. But Hackney's situation could shift faster than other areas if the economic climate worsens.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority): working population extrapolated from figures in red.

2010

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)

2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

Hackney North

2010

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296