Irrational numbers: Hackney unemployment

The combined number of people on the dole in Hackney North and Hackney South has not equalled the total number of people on the dole in Hackney the local authority - that's been the case for the last four months(Hackney's 1600 'ghost' workers and 28 'ghost' claimants)

The discrepancy between the combined parliamentary constituencies and the borough - or local authority - appeared after changes were made to boundaries of Hackney North and Hackney South.

The difference between the two was never large and was decreasing from the original 28 in April ( 20 in May and 17 in June). But in July the discrepancy widened again to 23.

This month also sees another odd feature in the official statistics. The number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Hackney North and Hackney South rose in both constituencies - consequently it also rose in the borough as a whole.

But in all these cases, the official figures show that the proportion of the working population claiming JSA has fallen. So while the actual number of dole claimants has risen, their proportion in relation to the working population of Hackney has fallen.

The explanation is simply that the working population of Hackney has grown by between 3,000-5,000 in July alone. The whys and wherefores for these odd figures might be buried somewhere in here: Hackney statistics - don't try this at home.

As an aside there was an article in the News of the World today which had Hackney as one of the UK's worst 'jobless ghettos' but it must be hidden somewhere behind the News International pay wall. I didn't look closely enough to see what it was talking about.

Latest Hackney JSA claimant counts:

Hackney borough total (Local Authority)
2010: working population extrapolated from figures in red.
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.68=144,794)
February: 10,044 (7%)
January: 9,905 (6.9%)
2009
December: 9743 (6.7%)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%)
July: 9550 (6.7%)




Hackney North

2010

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296