Big spike in Hackney unemployment (JSA claimants)

The latest job seekers allowance statistics for Hackney show 329 new claimants signing on. The number of unemployed people (Job Seekers Allowance claimants - rather than 'workless' who are on longer term benefits) hit 10,232, the highest it has been since the financial crisis in 2008.

The last time the number of people claiming job seekers allowance broke 10,000 was in February 2010 and the last time the level of unemployment in Hackney rose at such a fast rate was between February and June 2009. Back then Hackney was hit with succession of monthly increases in unemployment.

Meanwhile the question remains how vulnerable will Hackney be to cuts?

Predictions that thousands of public sector jobs are likely to be lost - as many as a thousand in Hackney itself over the next four years - could drive increases if these people are Hackney residents.

However the demographics of the borough may protect it a little. The borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is weighted toward managerial and professional jobs with 58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations.

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough. The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

Will the number go up or down from here? Last months figures published by the Office of National Statistics showed that 92 fewer people were collecting the dole in Hackney in December 2010 with 9,903 claimants compared to 9,995 in November. That has more than reversed.

(While the actual number of unemployed people in Hackney has risen to a new high, this number, as a proportion of the working population, is not a record. It is 6.8% compared to 7% in September 2009 when there were 350 fewer JSA claimants. This, apparently, is due to boundary changes in Hackney North and South (the parliamentary constituencies) which took place in 2010. However, as far as I can remember, there were no changes to the boundaries of Hackney borough as a whole. So I'm not sure where this leap in the size of the population came from (There may be some explanation of for this here: statistical anomalies in Hackney. This month the combined total of new unemployed people in Hackney South and North is 330. Across the borough as a whole it is 329. The total number of JSA claimants in Hackney North and South is 10,217 while the figure for the borough as a whole is 10,232 - not exactly huge discrepancies but they could make it difficult to interpret what is going on.)

HACKNEY BOROUGH

JSA CLAIMANT FIGURES:

2011

January: 10,232 (6.8%) - (10,232/0.068= 150,470) (+329)

2010

December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)

November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)

October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)

August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)

June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)

April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)

March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)

February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)

January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008

December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)

October - 6,982 (4.9%)

September - 6,942 (4.9%)

August - 6,803 (4.8%)

July - 6,454 (4.6%)

June - 6,440 (4.6%)

HACKNEY NORTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

Jan - 4, 858 (6.3%) - (4,858/0.063= 77,111) (+158)

2010

Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)

Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)

Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)

August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)

July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)

June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)

May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)

April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)

March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)

February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009

December - 4331 (6.2%)

November - 4386 (6.3%)

October - 4365

September - 4,338

August - 4,331

July - 4206

June - 4,118

May - 4,081

HACKNEY SOUTH

JSA CLAIMANT COUNT

2011

January - 5,359 (7.6%) - (5,359/0.076= 70,513) (+172)

2010

Dec - 5,187 (7.3%) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)

Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)

Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)

August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)

July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)

May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)

April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)

March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)

February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)

January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009

December - 5,412 (7.5%)

November - 5,409 (7.5%)

October - 5,462

September - 5,546 (7.8%)

August - 5,495

July - 5,344

June - 5,190

May - 5,296