The number of people claiming job seekers allowance in Hackney as a whole has fallen for the first time in six months. But can it continue as austerity measures bite?
The last time the borough saw falls in JSA claimant numbers the trend continued for four months and fell from a 10,044 peak in February 2010 to 9,406 in June 2010. A fall of 638 claimants.
Predictions that thousands of public sector jobs are likely to be lost - as many as a thousand in Hackney itself over the next four years - could prevent further falls. However the demographics of the borough may protect it from these cuts.
Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough.
However the borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is weighted toward managerial and professional jobs:
In 2008:
58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations.
23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations.
18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.
The paper said: "Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations."
The paper said: "Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations."
At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.
The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.
The latest figures published by the Office of National Statistics show that 92 fewer people were collecting the dole in Hackney in December 2010 with 9,903 claimants compared to 9,995 in November.
However all the falls were in North Hackney which already has a lower level of unemployment than South Hackney (6.1% compared to 7.3%). The number of claimants in Hackney South increased again for the sixth month in a row, but by just four.
Meanwhile changes in the borough boundaries earlier this year are still throwing up mild discrepancies due to statistical anomalies. This time, if you take ONS data for the individual constituencies - Hackney North and Hackney South - you see a fall in JSA claimants of 90 compared to the official borough-wide fall of 92.
2010
December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)
November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)
October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)
August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)
2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)
June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)
April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)
March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)
February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)
January: 7,350 (5.2%)
2008
December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)
October - 6,982 (4.9%)
September - 6,942 (4.9%)
August - 6,803 (4.8%)
July - 6,454 (4.6%)
June - 6,440 (4.6%)
Hackney North2010
Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)
Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)
Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)
August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)
July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)
June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)
May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)
April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)
March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)
February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)
2009
December - 4331 (6.2%)
November - 4386 (6.3%)
October - 4365
September - 4,338
August - 4,331
July - 4206
June - 4,118
May - 4,081
Hackney South
2010
Dec - 5,187 (7.3) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)
Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)
Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)
August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)
July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)
May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)
April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)
March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)
January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)
2009
December - 5,412 (7.5%)
November - 5,409 (7.5%)
October - 5,462
September - 5,546 (7.8%)
August - 5,495
July - 5,344
June - 5,190
May - 5,296
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