Sunday 23 January 2011

Unemployment falls for first time in six months

The number of people claiming job seekers allowance in Hackney as a whole has fallen for the first time in six months. But can it continue as austerity measures bite?

The last time the borough saw falls in JSA claimant numbers the trend continued for four months and fell from a 10,044 peak in February 2010 to 9,406 in June 2010. A fall of 638 claimants.

Predictions that thousands of public sector jobs are likely to be lost - as many as a thousand in Hackney itself over the next four years - could prevent further falls. However the demographics of the borough may protect it from these cuts.

Hackney's politicians have voiced a number of views on how dependent Hackney is on public sector jobs and the effect the cuts may have on the borough.

However the borough's latest economic factsheet shows that the working population is weighted toward managerial and professional jobs:

In 2008:
58% of Hackney’s population were employed in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical occupations.
23% were employed in administrative, skilled trades and personal service occupations.
18% of employees were concentrated in sales and customer service, process plant and machine operations and elementary occupations.

The paper said: "Some 41% of Hackney’s employed residents are employed in professional and associate professional occupations."

At the other end of the distribution, 8.5% of Hackney’s employees are employed as cleaners, security wardens, postal workers and couriers, hospitality workers and elementary sales.

The composition of the borough's working population may make it hard to predict what economic scenarios are good or bad for the level of unemployment in the borough.

The latest figures published by the Office of National Statistics show that 92 fewer people were collecting the dole in Hackney in December 2010 with 9,903 claimants compared to 9,995 in November.

However all the falls were in North Hackney which already has a lower level of unemployment than South Hackney (6.1% compared to 7.3%). The number of claimants in Hackney South increased again for the sixth month in a row, but by just four.

Meanwhile changes in the borough boundaries earlier this year are still throwing up mild discrepancies due to statistical anomalies. This time, if you take ONS data for the individual constituencies - Hackney North and Hackney South - you see a fall in JSA claimants of 90 compared to the official borough-wide fall of 92.

2010
December : 9,903 (6.6%) - (9,903/0.066=150,049) (-92)
November: 9,995 (6.6%) - (9,995/0.066=151,439) (+8)
October: 9,987 (6.6%) - (9,987/0.066=151,318) (+60)
September: 9,927 (6.6%) - (9,927/0.066=150,409) (+136)
August: 9,791 (6.5%) - (9,791/0.065=150,630) (+325)
July: 9,466 (6.3%) - (9466/0.063= 150,253) (+60)
June : 9,406 (6.5%) (9,406/ 0.065 = 144,707) (-210)
May: 9,616 (6.7%) (9,616/.067=143,522) (-47)
April: 9,663 (6.7%) (9,663/.067=144,223) (-183)
March: 9,846 (6.8%) (9,846/0.068=144,794) (- 198)
February: 10,044 (7%) (10,044/0.07=143,485) (+139)
January: 9,905 (6.9%) (9,905/0.069= 143,550) (+162)

2009
December: 9,743 (6.7%) (9,743/0.067=145,417) (-52)
November: 9,795 (6.8%)
October: 9,827 (6.8%)
September: 9,884 (7%)
August 9,826 (6.9%) (+276)
July: 9550 (6.7%) (+242)
June: 9,308 (6.6%) ()
May: 9,377 (6.6%) (+379)
April: 8,998 (6.3%) (+373)
March: 8,625 (6.1%) (+ 471)
February: 8,154 (5.7%) (+ 804)
January: 7,350 (5.2%)

2008
December: 7,245 (5.1%)
November - 7,013 (4.9%)
October - 6,982 (4.9%)
September - 6,942 (4.9%)
August - 6,803 (4.8%)
July - 6,454 (4.6%)
June - 6,440 (4.6%)


Hackney North

2010
Dec - 4,700 (6.1%) - (4,700/0.061=77,049) (-94)
Nov - 4,794 (6.2%) - (4,794/0.062=77,323)(-5)
Oct - 4,801 (6.2%) - (4,801/0.062= 77,435)(+29)
Sept - 4,772 (6.2%) - (4,709/0.062=76,967) (+63)
August - 4,709 (6.1%) - (4,709/0.061= 77,197)(+171)
July - 4,572 (5.9%) - (4,572/0.059= 77,491)(+34)
June - 4,538 (6.0%) - (4,538/0.06= 75,633)(-99)
May - 4,637 (6.2%) - (4,637/0.062=74,790)(-90)
April - 4,727 (6.3%) - (4,727/0.063=75,031)(+391)
March - 4,336 (6.2%) - (4,336/0.062=69,935)(-114)
February - 4,450 (6.4%) - (4,450/0.064=69,531)(+48)
January - 4,402 (6.3%) - (4,402/0.063=69,873)

2009
December - 4331 (6.2%)
November - 4386 (6.3%)
October - 4365
September - 4,338
August - 4,331
July - 4206
June - 4,118
May - 4,081

Hackney South

2010
Dec - 5,187 (7.3) - (5,187/0.073= 71,054) (+4)
Nov - 5,183 (7.3%) - (5,183/0.0.73=71,000) (+19)
Oct - 5,164 (7.3%) - (5,164/0.073=70,739)(+24)
Sept - 5,140 (7.3%) - (5,140/0.073=70,410)(+84)
August - 5,056 (7.1%) - (5,056/0.071 = 71,211)(+185)
July - 4,871 (6.9%) - (4,871/0.069= 70,549)(+20)
June - 4,851 (7.0%) - (4,851/0.07= 69,300) (-108)
May - 4,959 (7.2%) - (4,959/0.072=68,875)
April - 4,908 (7.1%) - (4908/0.071=69,126)
March - 5,510 (7.6%) - (5,510/0.076=72,500)
February - 5,594 (7.7%) - (5,594/0.077=72,649)
January - 5503 (7.6%) - (5503/0.076)=72,407)

2009
December - 5,412 (7.5%)
November - 5,409 (7.5%)
October - 5,462
September - 5,546 (7.8%)
August - 5,495
July - 5,344
June - 5,190
May - 5,296

Sunday 9 January 2011

Apologies for not getting things done

Blood and Property has not been updated since mid December. Apologies. My excuse is that I have been trying to tackle a dangerous cocktail of hoarding, procrastination and day dreaming.

I'm hoping to find the cure in some ideas outlined in a book called "Getting Things Done". I may have misinterpreted the instructions but a room in my flat has now become an "inbox" and as there aren't many rooms in my flat it seems reasonable to prioritise sorting out this inbox ASAP.

Unfortunately that's the only priority I'm allowed to make. So, until the task is completed, I have to process everything without prioritising - doing the top thing on my inbox list (finding homes for instruction manuals, guarantees, old notebooks, statements and other rubbish - as well as ideas about what to do with this blog). So I haven't got much time spare.

In the meantime the gap since my last post has become embarrassingly long. Last week Dave Hill kindly mentioned this blog in a piece on the Guardian website (thanks for that!) and I thought I better explain why I haven't done much for a while... I hope someone will still be reading this by the time I get back to it, hopefully next week.

This attempt to sort things out started before 2011 but it's now become a new year resolution.

And if there's anyone reading this... happy new year! And I hope you're having a better time with your resolutions than I am.